Land managers responsible for invasive species removal in the USA require tools to prevent the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) (ALB) from decimating the maple-dominant hardwood forests of Massachusetts and New England. Species distribution models (SDMs) and spread models have been applied individually to predict the invasion distribution and rate of spread, but the combination of both models can increase the accuracy of predictions of species spread over time when habitat suitability is heterogeneous across landscapes. First, a SDM was fit to 2008 ALB presence-only locations. Then, a stratified spread model was generated to measure the probability of spread due to natural and human causes. Finally, the SDM and spread models were combined to evaluate the risk of ALB spread in Central Massachusetts in 2008–2009. The SDM predicted many urban locations in Central Massachusetts as having suitable environments for species establishment. The combined model shows the greatest risk of spread and establishment in suitable locations immediately surrounding the epicentre of the ALB outbreak in Northern Worcester with lower risk areas in suitable locations only accessible through long-range dispersal from access to human transportation networks. The risk map achieved an accuracy of 67% using 2009 ALB locations for model validation. This model framework can effectively provide risk managers with valuable information concerning the timing and spatial extent of spread/establishment risk of ALB and potential strategies needed for effective future risk management efforts. 相似文献
A high-altitude peat sequence from the heart of the Spanish Central System (Gredos range) was analysed through a multi-proxy approach to determine the sensitivity of high-mountain habitats to climate, fire and land use changes during the last seven hundred years, providing valuable insight into our understanding of the vegetation history and environmental changes in a mountain pass close to a traditional route of transhumance. The pollen data indicate that the vegetation was dominated by shrublands and grasslands with scattered pines in high-mountain areas, while in the valleys cereals, chestnut and olive trees were cultivated. Strong declines of high-mountain pines percentages are recorded at 1540, 1675, 1765, 1835 and 1925 cal AD, which may be related to increasing grazing activities and/or the occurrence of anthropogenic fires. The practice of mountain summer farming and transhumance deeply changed and redesigned the landscape of the high altitudes in central Spain (Gredos range) since the Middle Ages, although its dynamics was influenced in some way by climate variability of the past seven centuries. 相似文献
Developing nations are abandoned against tropical cyclones because of climatic changeability; the atmosphere is probably going to expand the recurrence and extent of some outrageous climate and calamity occasions. Urban areas and towns arranged along the coastline front belt in Visakhapatnam region experienced serious harm because of Hudhud cyclone, which happened on October 12, 2014. The fundamental motivation behind this exploration was to distinguish the vegetation damage in Visakhapatnam and neighbouring towns. In this analysis, Landsat-8 satellite datasets procured prior and then afterward the cyclone have been utilized; image processing techniques have been completed to evaluate the progressions of pre- and post-disaster condition. Vegetation index strategy was utilized to assess the damage to vegetation. Arrangement results and land utilize land cover change investigation demonstrate that 13.25% of agriculture Kharif and 31.1% of vegetation was damaged. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) maps were produced for the previously, then after the cyclone circumstance, and vegetation biomass damage was evaluated in Visakhapatnam and Bhimunipatanam. General loss of vegetation in both the spots was 30.67 and 43.37 km2. The result of this review can be utilized by decision makers for the post-disaster support for rebuilding of influenced regions. 相似文献
This paper focuses on changing trust relationships among fishermen following new governance arrangements. The previous ‘thick’ trust relationships that characterized the Dutch fisheries industry under a neo-corporatist arrangement had resulted in an isolation of local fishermen groups vis-à-vis outsiders. However, under new governance arrangements, in particular the so-called Study Groups, these trust relationships are changing. The establishment of Study Groups, where fishermen from different localities have to cooperate on sustainability innovations in order to receive subsidies, lead to more diversity within the industry, more collaborations across localities and new forms of ‘thin’ trust. As such, these Study Groups can be understood as successful experiments in further opening up of the fisheries community. 相似文献
This paper reviews applications of the finite-difference and finite-element methods to the study of seismic wave scattering in both simple and complex velocity models. These numerical simulations have improved our understanding of seismic scattering in portions of the earth where there is significant lateral heterogeneity, such as the crust. The methods propagate complete seismic wavefields through highly complex media and include multiply scattered waves and converted phases (e.g.,P toSV, SV toP, body wave to surface wave). The numerical methods have been especially useful in cases of moderate and strong scattering in complex media where multiple scattering becomes important. Progress has been made with numerical methods in understanding how near-surface, low-velocity basin structures scatter surface waves and vertically-incident body waves. The numerical methods have proven useful in evaluating scattering of surface waves and body waves from topography of both the free surface and interfaces buried at depth. Numerical studies have demonstrated the importance of conversions from body waves to surface waves (andvice versa) when lateral heterogeneities and topographic relief are present in the uppermost crust. Recently, several investigations have applied numerical methods to study seismic wave propagation in velocity models which vary randomly in space. This stochastic approach seeks to understand the effects of small-scale complexity in the earth which cannot be resolved deterministically. These experiments have quantified the relationships between the statistical properties of the random heterogeneity and the measurable properties of high-frequency (1 Hz) seismograms. These simulations have been applied to the study of many features observed in actual high-frequency seismic waves, including: the amplitude and time decay of seismic coda, the apparent attenuation from scattering, the dispersion of waveforms, and the travel time and waveform variations across arrays of receivers. 相似文献
In 1990–1991 the LITHOPROBE project completed 450 km of seismic reflection profiles across the late Archaean crust of the southwestern Superior province. The results define a broad three-fold division of crust: upper crust in the Abitibi greenstone belt is non-reflective and is a 6–8 km veneer of volcanic and plutonic supracrustal rocks, whereas, in the sediment-gneiss dominated Pontiac subprovince, upper crust comprises shallow northwest-dipping turbidite sequences; mid-crust, in both the Abitibi and the Pontiac subprovinces, is interpreted as imbricate sequences of metasedimentary and metaplutonic rocks; lower crust in both subprovinces has a horizontal layer parallel strycture which may represent interleaved mafic-intermediate gneisses. The seismic signature of the northern Abitibi greenstone belt may be represented in an exposed 25 km crustal section in the Kapuskasing stuctural zone.
Preliminary tectonic models based on the seismic data are consistent with a plate-tectonic scenario involving oblique subduction and imbrication of sedimentary, plutonic and volcanic sequences. The northern Abitibi supracrustal sequences either represent an allochthon, or overlie an allochthonous underthrust metasedimentary and plutonic sequence which may be equivalent to a metasedimentary subprovince such as the Pontiac or Quetico.
Seismic velocities have yet to be defined. However, crustal thicknesses are relatively constant at 35–40 km. The thinnest crust is adjacent to the Grenville Front where Moho is very well defined. 相似文献